To say USA Rugby’s 31-29 defeat to Chile was a disappointment is beyond an understatement. It’s a debacle. A fiasco. Collapse. Is there a strong enough word? 

The United States came into the aggregate series as heavy favorites to knock off Chile and secure its place in the 2023 World Cup. The teams had faced each other three times in the last five years, with the Eagles going 3-0 and tallying a 137-point advantage in the combined results. The implications of the upset loss are momentous. 

The Americans are now faced with the unenviable task of winning a repechage tournament for that final spot in the World Cup. The combatants include Kenya, Portugal and the loser of Tonga-Hong Kong. The U.S. will have its work cut out for it, as a look into the record books shows USA will not exactly be favorites. 

Historical head to heads vs. Portugal and Kenya are either irrelevant or non-existent. However, Portugal has handled Chile recently which would seem to give Os Lobos the edge on paper. The U.S. has to hope Tonga handles Hong Kong, as they are historically 0-3 in head-to-heads, including a 31-19 loss in the 2019 World Cup. Even if it is Hong Kong, ranked 21st by World Rugby to the United States’ 17th, the Dragons will not go quietly into the night. Kenya would appear to be the weakest of the bunch, as it has yet to qualify for a World Cup and is ranked 33rd. But hey, Chile was also World Cup-less until Saturday night’s result punched Los Condores’ ticket.

The repercussions of coming up short in the tournament don’t just stop at the embarrassment of missing the World Cup for the first time since 1995’s event. In the years since Major League Rugby’s debut I’ve talked to just about everyone there is who has a hand in the league or USA Rugby’s success. Commissioner George Killebrew, Coach Gary Gold, countless coaches and captains that have either domestic or international ties. There is one consistent message for all of these voices: MLR is here to help USA Rugby improve. “We’re following the Japan/Top League model” is the constant parallel I’ve heard time and again.

So why does it seem like we are getting worse? The time to hang the American hat on defeating Scotland, ranked #6 at the time and the first U.S. win over a Tier 1 Nation is far over; that was four years ago now. That year, 2018, also represents MLR’s debut season. 

Since then, the U.S. has gone winless (again) in a World Cup, been spanked by Ireland, embarrassed on home soil by New Zealand and handed the ARCs back to Argentina after breaking through with Tournament wins in 2017 and 2018. Progress this is not. 

Even before this setback at the hands of Chile, I had a nauseating thought recently. I watched the USA Rugby-South Africa World Cup match from 2007. Sure the scoreline ended predictably one-sided (64-15) but make no mistake about it — that was a match. It was 24-10 at half, and the U.S. hung in well into the second half. They took their pound of flesh and were fan favorites as underdogs. Though I haven’t seen it, I’m sure the 28-10 loss to England told a similar tale. The U.S. was ranked 13th in that World Cup. 

Fast forward to 2022. 15 years later and the American are now ranked 17th. The 2019 World Cup loss to England was worse than ‘07 — 45-7, though last June’s 43-29 loss showed better stuff. So again I have to ask, where’s the progress? 

This article hurts to write. I’ve been a USA Rugby optimist ever since I began to understand the game at an international level — I’ve been drinking and handing out the “Top League Model” Kool-Aid since MLR’s inception. 

I’ll certainly be pulling for Gary Gold, Cam Dolan and the boys in November’s Final Qualification Tournament. But my hopes aren’t high. After the recent results, why would they be?